How I play Draws
There are very many factors that come into play when I
choose how to play my draws.
ll start by sketching some of the most important points to
consider before deciding how to play drawing hands:
- Position: Is always important in poker, but
ESPECIALLY your draws are much easier to play as
last to act instead of first to act. I have a greater tendency to
move all-in if I'm out of position (first to act), as opposed to if
I have position on my opponent.
- Effective stack
size: Extremely important! Since that's the
deciding factor as to whether I go all-in, call or bet a smaller
bet into my opponent.
- Fold equity: It's important
that you feel there's a chance your opponent will fold, and you
have a sense of how great or small that chance is.
- How many players are in the
pot: It is far better to be seated heads-up than
against multiple opponents if you're considering moving all-in with
your draw. To state the obvious, there's a far greater chance of
your opponent folding and you taking the pot if you're only up
against 1 player, as opposed to several.
- Type of opponent: Is he tight or loose ? and
is he passive or aggressive? I would much rather push a good player
all-in and force him to make a tough decision than a fishy
callstation. Against a fish, I will generally try to keep the pot
small until I have hit, even if I'm out of position.
- Your table image: This will always be
important when we consider the chance of getting your opponent to
toss his hand in the muck.
- How hidden is your draw if you hit: The better
hidden my draw, the more likely I am to NOT go all-in on the flop.
It is much better to have a hidden draw, which remains hidden when
u hit, than to draw to a card flipping the turn or river that would
make your opponent scared of the board. By that I mean, that in
many situations a straightdraw would be preferable to a flushdraw,
especially if you're deep stacked and in position.
Here's an example, which I believe illustrates the thought
process neatly; about the ways one could play many types of strong
draws.
By strong draws I mean, for instance, nutflush draw, flushdraw
with a gut-shot, straightdraw with over cards to the board or a
straightflush draw. Basically draws where you have at least 11-12
outs to hit a decent hand.
Let's assume you're sitting at a 6 handed No Limit game
with blinds at $1/2. Your stack is $150; your opponents have you
covered, so they have effectively stacks of $150.
Under the gun raises to $8, one caller, and you opt to see the
flop from BB with 7-8 of spades. Pot $25. Flop: 2s-6d-10s.
You have flopped a gut-shot straight draw together with a flush
draw, making nine spades and three 9's, 12 outs or about 45% chance
to hit your draw supposing you get to see both turn and river. In
this situation you are out of position to the pre-flop raiser. I
would in most cases go for an all-in check/raise here, since stack
size is perfect for this play. If your opponent chooses not to
shoot on the flop then it's actually ok to draw a free-card, but
most often the pre-flop raiser will follow-up with a continuation
bet on the flop. Here, he does bet pot, $25, and the caller mucks.
There is now $50 in the pot, and you would have to call $25 out of
position. I'm not mad about doing that, but, conversely, your hand
is too good to muck, in my book. Outlined is a perfect example of a
check/raise being the appropriate course of action considering
stack size and position + it could indicate great strength to play
the hand exactly that way. You push all-in by calling his $25 bet
and raising the rest of your stack, which is ($150 minus the $6
pre-flop call, minus your $25 flop call = $119) $119. This is still
a pretty big call for your opponent; you're applying maximum
pressure on him and destroying his advantage of being in
position.
Let's take a look at the mathematical aspect of pushing
all-in:
What could your opponent be holding in this hand?
The most likely hands he would raise UTG in a 6 handed game are:
All nine pairs down to around 6-6; AK, AQ, AJ, A10 and KQ; KJs and
K10s; QJs, Q10s and J10s. (There could of course be other likely
combinations depending on what type of player we're dealing with,
but I'm trying to simplify it for the sake of clarity and
understanding.)
On a flop of 2s-6d-10s, there are actually many combinations (of
those we considered plausible) that haven't connected with the
flop. Let us split the possible combinations into two groupings,
those that have connected with the flop, and those that
haven't.
Hands that haven't hit the flop: Number of combinations of the
individual hands are in parenthesis: AK(15, since AK spades is
considered as a hit flop), AQ(15), AJ(15) KQ(15), KJs(3) = 63
combinations.
Hands that have hit the flop: All nine pairs with 6 combinations
of each = 54. Minus three combinations of 6-6, 7-7, 8-8 and 10-10 =
(42). ). A-10 (12), K10s(3), Q10s(3), J10s(3), AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs
and KJs in spades ( 5) = 68 combinations.
Let us simplify this situation by assuming our opponent always
continuation bets whether he has hit or not. He would probably do
that in most cases anyway. That would mean that we win the pot
immediately 63 times. The pot is $50.
We get: 63 x 50 = 3150
Which gives a fold equity of $3150 in those 63 incidents where
your opponent must necessarily fold to our all-in raise.
For the other 68 combinations, we need to find out what our
chances are against a range of differing combinations.
All over pairs and top pairs are around 55/45% favourite against
our draw. There could be a slight fluctuation, depending on whether
our opponent is holding the spade A. Those are an accumulated 45
combinations.
A set on the flop is 66/34% favourite against us. Those
accumulate to 6 combinations.
A higher flush draw is 73/27% favourite, and actually the worst
case scenario. Luckily there's only 5 combinations of those.
77(3)-88(3)-99(6) are on average 55/45% favourite. Those are 12
combinations.
If we took a weighted average, it would look like is:
45 % x 45 combinations + 34 % x 6 combinations + 27 % x 5
combinations + 45 % x 12 combinations = 29,04. So, we win , on
average, 29,04 out of the total 68 hands our opponent calls
with.
29,04 divided by all 68 combinations our opponent would call
with = 42,7%
So, our average win rate is 42,7% out of the total hands our
opponent calls with. We lose 57,3%.
There is $25 in the pot before the flop + the $25 the opponent
has bet out. We can win $50 + the $119, we raise further. Totally
we win $169, 42,7% of the 68 times. Which is the same as $160 x
0,427 x 68 = $4907
On the other hand, we lose the rest of our stack, which is $144,
57,3% of the 68 times our opponent calls: $144 x 0,573 x 68 =
-$5611
This leads to : $4907-$5611 = $-704. We lose $704 from the 68
times we get called.
That would mean we have a total plus of $3150 - $704 = $2446
We actually get + $2446 out of the total combinations, which is
63 + 68 = 131 combinations.
$2446 / 131 = $18,67. That gives a +EV of $18,67 per hand to
push all-in for this given situation. Essentially that means we're
really losing $18,67 in the long run by folding instead of moving
all-in with this hand in a $1/2 no limit game. It's an invisible
error that we'd never think about during play, assuming of course
that we don't have the necessary and experience about how powerful
a weapon a semi-bluff can be, given the right circumstances. Surely
there are no players who sit and perform these calculations while
they play, but still I believe the math is a great guideline, to
prove that it's all connected in this way.
All in all, we can conclude that it would be a rather
grievous error in the long run to not move all-in with a good draw
like in this case.
The example above is even calculated on the assumption that your
opponent calls ALL those combinations where he has hit the flop
even at the slightest. This calculation would favor your opponent a
great portion of the time. I personally believe that there's a very
large chance that top pair would muck to a relatively large
check/raise here. I also think most players would much 77, 88, and
99. These changed evaluations would alter the mathematical vantage
point substantially, and give us an even larger plus on the
bottomline.
Should you choose to just call on the flop, which in my eyes is
the worst possible play, and you miss the turn, he could put you
all-in and you would necessarily have to fold. Another problem,
what happens if you hit your flush, then what do you do on the
turn? Bet out or check? Your opponent would be scared of the flush
card and probably check behind you, making it difficult for you to
get paid. Can you see why position is so important? Especially with
drawing hands in no limit; they are always tough to play out of
position.
That's why I am more prone to 'shoving' out of position, either
with a check/raise, by betting into the opponent , or even
sometimes, if you're deep stacked enough, bet a little to induce a
raise and then come back over the top with an all-in move. You just
have to make sure your re-raise over the top is large enough to
allow some likelihood your opponent could fold. Here it simply
depends on how large your respective stacks are at the table, and
what your perception of the opponent is. Is he a good / aggressive
player who can fold a hand, then it's fine to move in. Is he a
total fishy call-station, then I'll continue to keep the pot small
until I hit.
I would like to point out, that too large over-bets on your
draws can result in risking too much with respect to what you have
to gain. Say you pounded all-in with your 7-8 of spades on the same
flop as earlier, but this time you're now sitting with $1000 each.
He bets $25, and you briskly pop over the top and toss in the full
$1000. You can still only get him to fold and earn the $50,
but you're risking $1000 where he might actually wake up with a
real hand. Which is to say, that your fold equity is monstrous,
however, you lose too much in those unlucky situations where he has
hit a set and calls.
As a point of order, I'd like to state, that in many
situations I prefer to 'shove' all-in with draws that aren't
drawing to the nuts, because I would be putting my opponent under
pressure. Even in situations where he might have a higher draw than
mine, he might have difficulty pulling out a call if my all-in bet
is large enough. On the other hand, one could say that if I didn't
toss all my chips into the middle on a nutflush draw, then I'm
almost certain to get his entire stack in those lucky circumstances
where he's also on the draw and we both hit. But that doesn't mean
that you should never move in with your nutflush draw, I do that
quite often, but the essence is that one should learn to think the
situation through thoroughly before making such a rash move.
Another advantage to pummeling all-in with a strong draw is that
you get to see both turn and river without paying more, and should
you hit your draw, then you don't have to worry about how to get
paid, because the chips are all in the middle.
In addition, another advantage to making these all-in moves with
draws is when balancing them with your monsters, like a set or top
two pair. Say, for instance, we play a few more hands in the same
session we constructed above; where you 10-15 minutes earlier
cracked you opponents AA in the previously stated scenario. Now
you're sitting with 10-10 and the flop comes: 2d-10c-Jc
Here arise certain advantages to playing your set like a draw,
either by check/raise all-in or betting out, depending on your
stack size. Your opponent wouldn't need a particularly strong hand
to talk himself into a call, convinced that you must be on a draw,
which you very well could be on that board. He's just seen you pull
an all-in move with a draw, where you hit and cracked his rockets.
Here you employ your table image + perhaps a little tilt factor for
your opponent, its perfect to go all-in on the flop.
There are also some player types, who believe they must shoot
all their bricks to the middle, like some John Wayne clone in a
western. Just because they've read about it in a ridiculous poker
book, or are playing at some form of machismo and need to show they
are tough and prepared to shoot at anything that moves. That's
fundamentally the wrong perception of no limit. Its fine to be
aggressive, it's alright to move all-in with your strong draws, but
it has to be a carefully considered all-in, where you have taken
into account a large portion of the factors stated above.
It might well be that some of you are thinking that it's
impossible to think through all those scenarios, and most probably
don't , but the more experience you gain, the better these factors
will stick on your mind
Morten - Pokergirl
